SARS-CoV-2 and type 1 diabetes in children in Finland: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Some epidemiological studies have suggested an increase in incidence of type 1 diabetes during the COVID-19 pandemic, however the mechanism(s) behind such an increase have yet to be identified. In this study we aimed to evaluate the possible role of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the reported increase in the rate of type 1 diabetes. METHODS: In this observational cohort study using data from the Finnish Pediatric Diabetes Register (FPDR), we assessed the incidence of type 1 diabetes (number of children with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes per 100 000 person-years during the pandemic and the reference period) during the first 18 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in children in Finland younger than 15 years old compared with a reference period which included three corresponding pre-pandemic periods also obtained from the FPDR. Children with confirmed monogenic diabetes were excluded. We also compared the phenotype and HLA genotype of the disease between these two cohorts, and analysed the proportion of newly diagnosed people with type 1 diabetes testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. FINDINGS: 785 children and adolescents in Finland were diagnosed with type 1 diabetes from March 1, 2020, to Aug 31, 2021. In the reference period, which comprised three similar 18-month terms (from March 1, 2014, to Aug 31, 2015; March 1, 2016, to Aug 31, 2017; and March 1, 2018, to Aug 31, 2019) 2096 children and adolescents were diagnosed. The incidence of type 1 diabetes was 61·0 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 56·8-65·4) among children younger than 15 years old during the pandemic, which was significantly higher than during the reference period (52·3 per 100 000 person-years; 50·1-54·6). The incidence rate ratio adjusted for age and sex for the COVID-19 pandemic was 1·16 (1·06-1·25; p=0·0006) when compared with the reference period. The children diagnosed during the COVID-19 pandemic had more often diabetic ketoacidosis (p<0·001), had a higher HbA1c (p<0·001), and tested more frequently positive for glutamic acid debarboxylase antibodies at diagnosis (p<0·001) than those diagnosed before the pandemic. There were no significant differences in the distribution of HLA genotypes between the two periods. Only five of those diagnosed during the pandemic (0·9%) of 583 tested positive for infection-induced SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. INTERPRETATION: Children and adolescents diagnosed with type 1 diabetes during the pandemic had a more severe disease at diagnosis. The observed increase in type 1 diabetes incidence during the first 18 months could be a consequence of lockdown and physical distancing rather than a direct effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection. FUNDING: Helsinki University Hospital Research Funds, EU Horizon 2020 (Versatile emerging infectious disease observatory project), Academy of Finland, Sigrid Jusélius Foundation, Jane & Aatos Erkko Foundation, and Medicinska understödsföreningen Liv och Hälsa. TRANSLATIONS: For the Finnish and Swedish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Real-life clinical sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test in symptomatic patients.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the false negative rates of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing is pivotal for the management of the COVID-19 pandemic and it has implications for patient management. Our aim was to determine the real-life clinical sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR. METHODS: This population-based retrospective study was conducted in March-April 2020 in the Helsinki Capital Region, Finland. Adults who were clinically suspected of SARS-CoV-2 infection and underwent SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing, with sufficient data in their medical records for grading of clinical suspicion were eligible. In addition to examining the first RT-PCR test of repeat-tested individuals, we also used high clinical suspicion for COVID-19 as the reference standard for calculating the sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR. RESULTS: All 1,194 inpatients (mean [SD] age, 63.2 [18.3] years; 45.2% women) admitted to COVID-19 cohort wards during the study period were included. The outpatient cohort of 1,814 individuals (mean [SD] age, 45.4 [17.2] years; 69.1% women) was sampled from epidemiological line lists by systematic quasi-random sampling. The sensitivity (95% CI) for laboratory confirmed cases (repeat-tested patients) was 85.7% (81.5-89.1%) inpatients; 95.5% (92.2-97.5%) outpatients, 89.9% (88.2-92.1%) all. When also patients that were graded as high suspicion but never tested positive were included in the denominator, the sensitivity (95% CI) was: 67.5% (62.9-71.9%) inpatients; 34.9% (31.4-38.5%) outpatients; 47.3% (44.4-50.3%) all. CONCLUSIONS: The clinical sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing was only moderate at best. The relatively high false negative rates of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing need to be accounted for in clinical decision making, epidemiological interpretations, and when using RT-PCR as a reference for other tests.